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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:05AM EDT (0605 UTC) Sun May 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 07N19W. The ITCZ extends from 07N19W to 05N35W and 04N51W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 08N and east of 31W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A weak stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle near 30N85W to 24N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 26N and east of 88W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that strong winds are associated with the strongest convection. Meanwhile, strong thunderstorms over the eastern Yucatan peninsula are spilling into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found north of Yucatan, especially south of 24N and between 85W and 89W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. Areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will shift eastward tonight before stalling again on Sun from Tampa Bay to the central Gulf, and weaken gradually through Mon. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin through early Sun, pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will develop again across the W Gulf Tuesday through Thursday night.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
The subtropical ridge over the north Atlantic continues to extend into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining generally dry conditions. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to locally near gale- force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. These winds are sustaining seas of 6-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia and the Bay Islands. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, a weak and narrow Atlantic ridge extends westward along 24N into the central Bahamas. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over SE Mexico is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds across the Gulf of Honduras, and fresh to locally strong E winds in the south- central Caribbean. Strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will persist through Sun morning, reaching near gale-force tonight. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Monday night. High pressure from the eastern Atlantic will build westward Wednesday and early Wednesday night leading to increasing trade winds over most of the central and eastern Caribbean as a weak trough materializes over the western Atlantic. A mid to upper-level trough may bring increasing tropical moisture to the central and eastern Caribbean region around mid-week. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean, and over the Gulf of Honduras.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
An upper level trough over the SE United States is producing scattered showers across the waters north of the NW Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring north of 28N and west of 77W. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N58W to 26N66W and to 27N72W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is observed north of 23N and between 45W and 57W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the north Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are evident south of 20N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weak frontal trough extends from 31N58W southwestward to 26N66W then to 27N72W. The trough will shift eastward through late Sun as it weakens further. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected across most of the area through Sun night as weak high pressure extends E to W to the south of the trough, roughly along 24N-25N. A new front will sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early Mon, and move southeastward and weaken through late Tue. A trough will extend from near 30N70W to the northern Bahamas early on Wednesday and slowly shift eastward through Thursday night, as possible weak low pressure forms along it.

Forecaster: Sandy Delgado, National Hurricane Center